Baltimore at Tampa Bay

The Rays sit atop the AL East despite a horrific offense at home. They are averaging just 2.9 runs per game here but have managed to produce a .500 record despite the lack of offense. They are doing it thanks to a defense that has kept opponents to just 3.3 runs per game in this ballpark and 3.4 per game overall. In their last seven games, the Rays are 6-1, holding opponents to 2.6 runs per game! That spells trouble for the Orioles who manage only 3.8 per game on the road and 2.9 per game over their last seven. The O's face Andy Sonnastine and his 2.87 ERA. Baltimore is just 3-15 this season vs. winning teams so getting the Rays at -125 here provides a lot of value, especially considering that Tampa Bay is 19-7 vs. losing teams. Over the past two seasons, the O's are 70-51 UNDER vs. winning teams and 46-24 vs. AL teams allowing under 4.3 runs per game. Tampa Bay is 16-2 UNDER this season at home as a favorite! Finally, Baltimore is 13-1 UNDER in dome games since last season. Take the Rays and the UNDER here.