Baltimore at Tampa Bay

I keep saying this over like a broken record, but the oddsmakers can't make the Tampa lines at home chalky enough to take away the value. The Rays have been sizzling at home compiling an 83-34 mark as a home favorite and now also 69-24 vs a righthand pitcher at home. Rays also 47-13 at home with a posted total of 9-10.5 and with tonight's starter Jeff Niemann on the hill they are 10-1 in that spot. The Birds have been horrible on the road period, but as a dog of +201 or higher they are just 12-55. Looks like a chalky line, but taking a look at the numbers here says otherwise as a lot of four to one or better longterm situations in favor of the Rays, who I will back in this one.