Baltimore at Tampa Bay

This is a great match-up for the Os. Erik Bedard has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 14 of his last 17 starts. That doesn't bode well for a Tampa Bay team that can't hold teams down. The D-Rays are just 13-34 in their last 47 games. The Orioles have won eight straight with Bedard on the mound. In July he is 5-0 with a 2.21 ERA. Tampa Bay's offense is actually worse at home than on the road. Baltimore's offense is nothing to write home about but they'll be facing a team that allows 6.2 runs per game, a starter in Sonnanstine that is 1-6 on the year and a bullpen that boasts a 6.48 ERA. The Orioles, as bad as their offense is, are 14-5 this year vs. AL oppponents that allow 5.2+ runs per game and 14-5 vs. teams with a terrible bullpen (ERA 5.50+). The are also 17-5 vs. very bad teams (those being outscored by 1+ runs per game). Baltimore isn't a great team, but this is a great situation for them and Tampa Bay can't even beat bad teams. They are 8-28 the past two seasons in post-All Star play vs. losing opponents. Bedard is lights out and should keep Tampa down. With the D-Rays giving up runs in droves, Baltimore looks great here.