Baltimore at Philadelphia

The Phillies are an upside down team this season. They are blistering good on the road where they lead the majors with a 23-9 mark, but at home there is only one team in baseball with fewer home wins and that is the Washington Nationals. The Birds wheel-out Brad Bergesen for this one, and he has stabilized a rotation that hasn't been very productive. Bergesen has progressed with each passing start, and went the distance his last time out allowing just two runs and five hits. He stands-in with a 3.79 ERA on the season, but in his last four starts he has a 1.69 ERA. J.A. Happ was impressive in the bullpen and has made five starts, but a closer look reveals he beat Washington twice and San Diego once, but lost to good bats against both New York teams, and his numbers may have a better look than his actual ability. The Red Sox touched him up for five runs last start and that makes nine runs in his last 11 innings. We are getting some value here with the Birds, who are getting more from Bergesen. I'll go with the Orioles here.