Baltimore at New York

The Yankees put up 17 runs last night and while I expect them to have success today, the chances of another offensive onslaught like that are slim. Let's not forget this is the fourth game for these clubs within a 41-hour span. The Orioles average just 3.9 runs per game on the road and they draw Freddy Garcia who has posted a very nice 3.23 ERA this season. At home, he's given up just 39 earned runs in 110 innings. When he leaves the game, Baltimore gets the pleasure of facing one of the better bullpens in the league. The Yankees bullpen has a 16-5 save rate at home this season along with a 2.92 ERA. Let's face it - Baltimore's chances of winning here are slim. This team is 15-42 this season vs. winning teams. I like New York. I also like the UNDER. When the Orioles play great teams, they tend to go UNDER. The past two seasons, they are 58-38 to the UNDER when facing teams that outscore their opponents by 0.5+ runs per game. In his career, Garcia is 77-43 UNDER in that situation. This season, New York is 19-7 UNDER after a 4+ run win and 13-2 UNDER after a 6+ run win. Take the Yankees and the UNDER here.