Baltimore at Minnesota

Here we get a great home team vs. a weak road team. While their overall records are nearly identical, both around .450 on the season, the home/road records tell a very different story. Baltimore is 9-17 on the road while Minnesota, overall a losing team, has a great 17-9 home record including 14-5 in night games. They bat .295 at home and score 5.4 per game - over a run better than what they do on the road. Their very good bullpen gets even better at home where they've posted a 2.67 ERA on way to a 6-1 record and 83% save percentage. Meanwhile, Baltimore gets more than a full run less on the road than at home. Away from home they score 4.1 per game on .243 hitting. Sure, Carlos Silva has struggled this year but the records, bullpen play and offensive output overshadow the starting pitching here and we're getting great value at even money. Road teams starting a pitcher that gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, after 2 straight games where their bullpen blew a save are 9-38 (20%) over the past decade. Twinkies here.