Baltimore at Minnesota

Baltimore is 26-17 on the road after beating Minnesota yesterday as a +150 dog, 3-1. The Orioles are on a 15-11 run with two of the losses by just one run. The offense is ninth in runs scored and 11th in slugging, while the bullpen is eighth in ERA (3.74) and the defense is fifth in fielding percentage. Tyler Wells (3.19 ERA) is holding batters to a .188 average and has a 1.88 ERA versus the Twins. The Orioles are 22-12 after playing two or more straight road contests, plus 15-6 versus the AL Central. Minnesota's offense is 23rd in runs scored, 25th in on-base percentage, and 19th in slugging, while the pitching is 20th in ERA and the defense is 23rd in fielding percentage. They're on a 10-11 run overall with two of the victories by one run. Minnesota is 3-8 in the last 11 starts made by Sonny Gray with the three victories all in extra innings by 1, 1, and 2 runs. He's also just 6-5 with a 4.19 ERA versus the Orioles. With the Twins 41-71 against an AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.70 or better, the wagering value is on the visitors to win or lose by one run. Make it a Max Play on Baltimore, run line.