Baltimore at Cleveland

Cleveland laid a 9-0 whopping on the O's last night confirming what we know - Baltimore is not very good on the road. It was their fourth straight loss and their sixth out of their last eight road games. Erik Bedard goes for Baltimore and he's pitched very well lately but he's just 3-5 with a 6.38 ERA on the road. He also doesn't perform very well against good teams (5-120 vs. teams that outscore opponents by 1/2 run or more per game over the past two seasons). Cleveland hasn't lost to Baltimore here at home over the past three seasons (7-0). Baltimore is 3-14 on the road this season at +125 to -125. Tiny favorites or underdogs that are batting .300 or better over their last 15 games are 38-18 (68%) in July over the last 5 seasons. Also, home teams that allowed 1 run or less last game facing an opponent that allowed 9 runs or more 2 straight games are 50-17 (75%) over the past decade. Cleveland's offense is red hot (8.3 runs per game over the past seven games) while Baltimore's is cold (4.0 over their last seven, 3.9 vs. lefties). Cleveland at home at nearly even money here is a nice gift.