Baltimore at Chicago

The Baltimore Orioles have slipped on offense from recent years, #21 in runs scored and #26 in on-base percentage. They were swept over the weekend at Yankee stadium, a small park, while scoring just eight total runs. They've also scored nine runs the last four games and head to a big park in Chicago. Baltimore is 27-13 UNDER the total after scoring four runs or less in three straight games. The Orioles are also on a 104-79 run UNDER against teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game. Chicago has a bad offense, #22 in runs scored and on-base percentage. They do have a hot starter going in veteran Mike Pelfrey (2-5, 3.80 ERA), limiting opponents to a .225 average and posting a 1.69 ERA over his last four starts. Chicago is 18-8-2 UNDER the total against a team with a winning record, plus 7-2-1 UNDER against a left-handed starter. Play UNDER the total in this one.