Baltimore at Chicago

The Baltimore Orioles have played as well as any AL team over the last six weeks, and have a comfortable lead in the AL East. When you look at Chris Tillman, his stats say he is very beatable, but he seems to pitch well enough to win and is indeed a winner. He has an ERA in the mid-3s, good but not great, and also had similar numbers last season. When the dust settles, however, this guy is 34-15 over the last three years. Jose Quintana deserves better than his 6-9 record, but the issue here is not the starter, but the pen. The White Sox pen has been imploding all season, and seems to cost them on a regular basis. All you need to know to see why is that he is 6-9 is in 25 starts, allowing just 54 runs, but the bullpen behind him has allowed even more at 55. This is a ready-to-win game made for Tillman in this match-up so take Baltimore. I also like this game to stay UNDER the total. Despite having two anomalous games in which they scored 11 and 7 runs, the White Sox have averaged just 3.0 runs per game over their last 12 games. Outside of those two outliers, they are getting just 1.8 runs per game over that span! Tillman has posted a 1.74 ERA over his last three starts so I really expect Chicago's offense to struggle. When facing a team batting .265 or worse this season, the Orioles are 53-37 to the UNDER. And, dating back to last season, Tillman is 22-11 UNDER when facing AL teams that average under 4.8 runs per game. Baltimore is 29-17 UNDER this season as a favorite. Take the O's and the UNDER here.