Baltimore at Boston

The Red Sox are posted as prohibitive favorites here with a pitcher making his first MLB appearance. No pressure. Jon Lester is out and Kyle Weiland is in. Lester is 14-0 in 17 starts vs. Baltimore. Weiland has never seen MLB action. Mitch Atkins goes for the Orioles and while he's only pitched one game, he did very good in that game, allowing just one run in six innings. There's a big offensive edge here for the Red Sox, but I am not sure their heart will be in this one given their excellent recent performance, weak opponent, and All-Star break looming. Boston has been a big money burner the past two seasons as a big favorite (-20.7 units as a favorite of -150 or more). This season, the Red Sox are just 5-10 as a home favorite of -150 to -175. In his managing career, Buck Showalter is 95-60 against the runline vs. great teams (those outscoring opponents by 1+ run per game). Take Baltimore on the runline here.