Baltimore at Boston

There is no doubt that the Red Sox lineup has been producing a lot of runs lately, but looking at an 11 here is just a factor of last night's 8-run explosion in the first. There has not been an 11 total in a Red Sox game since June of last year. A game which, by the way, went under the total, so this one is certainly juiced. The Red Sox history bears out that fact with a 12-3-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 16 with a posted total of 11 or higher. Lackey's last four starts vs. the O's have seen none of them top the total. This one is set too high, so the value and my pick is on the UNDER.