Baltimore at Boston

These two starting pitchers have similar stats (4.90 ERA for Matusz and 4.46 for Lackey). But, their W-L records contrast starkly. One plays for Baltimore and the other, Boston. Matusz is 2-9 while Lackey is 9-3. Boston has won the first two games in this series and there's no reason to think anything different will occur here. The O's are 8-31 on the road this season and 8-27 in division games. They score only 3.1 per game on the road, while Boston gets 5.7 per game at home. Boston has also fared very well vs. LHP like Matusz, averaging 6.0 runs per game vs. southpaws. When facing a winning team this season, the Orioles are just 9-38. Meanwhile, Lackey has won 17 of his last 18 starts vs. teams that get outscored by 1+ run per game. I like Boston here and will back them on the runline.