Baltimore at Boston

A pair of strong offenses meet in Fenway Park - a great park for offense. We've seen that the last two nights in 9-7 and 9-5 Baltimore victories. 32-year-old Orioles' starter Ubaldo Jimenez has been prone to walks in his career and you can't do that at Fenway and survive long. Last season Jimenez had a 4.44 ERA on the road walking 45 in 103 innings, a poor ratio. He also allowed 14 of his 20 homers on the road, plus he walked 10 Red Sox batters in 20 innings against them. This is nothing new: The last three years Jimenez has a 6.51 ERA against Boston walking 27 in 37 innings along with 35 hits allowed. Baltimore is 7-2-1 OVER the total against the AL East. Their red hot offense gets to face erratic Red Sox righty Joe Kelly (21.00 ERA), off a dismal opener of allowing 10 base runners in just three innings. Baltimore ripped him last season with a 7.71 ERA in 11+ innings, and the OVER is 9-1-1 when Kelly takes the mound. The Red Sox are also 23-8-1 OVER the total after a loss and 22-10 OVER after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Play Baltimore/Boston OVER the total.