Atlanta at Washington

Kyle Davies is horrible. He's got a 2-5 record with a 7.68 ERA. He's off three terrible performances vs. the Mets and Phillies in which he lasted an average of 3.3 innings per start giving up 16 earned runs in 10 total innings. On top of that, Atlanta's offense isn't providing the kind of run support their pitchers are used to. Over their last seven games they are averaging just 4.0 runs per game vs. 5.1 on the season. Meanwhile, Washington is pounding the ball averaging 5.6 per game over the same span. Home teams with a batting average between .255 to .269 facing a poor starting pitcher (with an ERA over 5.70) are 38-12 (76%) in September games over the past five seasons. The Nats are taking care of business vs. poor teams as they are 13-5 at home vs. losing teams since the All-Star break. Small price here on Washington.