Atlanta at San Diego

Jair Jurrgens has developed into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but the oddsmakers have overrated his ability and because of it, the line here is not close to where it should be. Jurrgens was not as effective on the road last year, despite the fact the Braves won more on the road overall than at home. In his last 15 road starts, if facing a -1.5 runline, Jurrgens led the Braves to just a 5-10 record. Kevin Correia finished strong a year ago, and the Padres were actually 11-5 in his last 16 starts. The Braves had trouble with Jurrgens on the hill in a series opener, where they are just 2-10 in the last 12 games he opened a series. I'll go with San Diego here on the runline.