Atlanta at Philadelphia

Atlanta is 9-8 in its last 17 road games including losses as chalk of -260, -250, and -260. Bryce Elder has lost his two road starts, one of them as a -250 favorite at Oakland. Philadelphia is 19-12 at home and is on a 13-3 run overall. That continues a trend with a 32-13 record in the month of June as the weather (and bats) start to heat up. The defending NL champs have moved up to 13th in on-base percentage and 11th in slugging, while the pitching staff is 12th in the majors in WHIP. Starter Aaron Nola has been very good at home holding batters to a .214 average. He's also done well against Atlanta with a 15-10 record and a 3.51 ERA versus the Braves. The Phillies are 19-9 against an NL starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or better, so back the hot home team. Play Philadelphia.