Atlanta at New York

We have seen it before - a quality pitcher like Johan Santana gets on a roll and runs off 5-6 straight big starts. Santana is progressing toward that now as he has allowed 2 runs in his last 21 innings, for an ERA of 0.86. Derek Lowe seems to be on the back-9 of his career at 37. He finished last year with a 6.64 ERA in his last eight starts, and this year stands in at 4.40. After four solid years in LA with an ERA in the 3's, he has not had a season out of the 4's since joining the Braves. The Mets are getting it done vs. mediocre pitching at 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP greater than 1.30. I'll go with the Mets here.