Atlanta at New York

There is no doubt Oliver Perez has great stuff as evidenced by his 15 wins for the Mets last season. He got out of the gate very slowly as his location and control did him in. As a result the Mets watched him walk hitters and give up big hits. As a result, the Mets were only winners in five of his first 13 starts. Perez has been back in the groove since then, and the Mets are now 9-3 over his last 12 starts. He has pitched to a 1.97 ERA over his last nine starts. The Mets would have gone 11-3 in the 14 games they have won if they were giving -1.5 runs. Jo Jo Reyes has been completely lost on the mound for the Braves. He has failed to get out of the third inning in each of his prior two starts, and the Braves have now lost his last six starts by a total score of 42-18. We like the Mets on the runline in this one.