Atlanta at Miami

Atlanta's pitching is second in the majors in ERA (3.54) while the defense is third in fielding percentage. The Braves are on a 23-13 run UNDER the total. The offense is 16th in runs scored, 19th in on-base percentage, and last in steals. Batters are hitting .247 off Charlie Morton, who has 161 Ks in 155 innings. Morton is 5-0 UNDER the total when he starts against losing teams. Atlanta is not scoring much for him, losing three of his last four starts. That includes a 1-0 loss to the Reds as a -150 favorite. He faces a Miami offense that is 28th in runs scored, 29th in on-base percentage, and 25th in slugging. Valente Bellozo (3.70 ERA) has a 3.60 ERA versus Atlanta this season and the Marlins are 5-0 UNDER when he faces the NL East. The Marlins have won five of his last eight starts, winning as underdogs of +107, +118, +165, and +172. Take Miami + UNDER the total.