Atlanta at Cincinnati

The Reds have to feel good as they broke a four game slide last night against the Braves, beating their ace Jair Jurggens in the process and hitting him hard. The Reds have now posted wins in seven of their last ten at home. The Braves were awful on the road last season and, after a good start on the road in '09, they have fallen back to resemble the road team we saw in '08 as they are now just 3-8 in their last 11 on the road. They have allowed 63 runs in the 11 games, or almost 6 per contest. When you have an offense that has produced three runs or less in eight of these same 11 games, the win column becomes quite ellusive. Vasquez has given the Braves four straight wasted good starts, all losses, and that has to have him thinking on the mound, if he gives up a run he losses a lot of pressure to pitch under. Micah Owings has had success against the Braves, where he enters this one with a 3-0 career mark backed by a 2.70 ERA. He also is a factor at the plate at .257 with a HR. I like the Reds on the run line in this one.