Atlanta at Cincinnati

Brandon Beachy has been shellacked in his recent outings. Over his last three starts vs. Baltimore, Philly and Colorado, he gave up 24 hits and 11 runs in just 15.7 innings. The Reds can hit (5.1 runs per game at home) so the likelihood of him lasting long in this one is low. Dontrelle Willis goes for the Reds and while he's only pitched in two games, he's done very well in those appearances (3.37 ERA). The Braves really struggle vs. southpaws like Willis. While averaging 4.3 runs per game against RHP, they get only 3.7 per game vs. lefties. When posted as a small favorite (-100 to -125), the Braves are just 17-29 since last season. Meanwhile, the Reds thrive in expected close games, going 36-23 over the past two seasons at -125 to +125. I like the home team to get the win here. Play the Reds.