Atlanta at Cincinnati

We don't often get a winning team vs. a losing team getting close to 1.5 to 1 at home. Atlanta has dropped three straight and seven of their last nine. They hope John Smoltz can help them avoid the sweep this afternoon. He's pitched well all season while his counterpart Kyle Lohse, acquired Monday from the Twins, has had a very rough go of it. He was sent down to the minors by Minnesota after a terrible April/May. In AAA ball he put up a 1.50 ERA and I think with a fresh start here, he can put his bad early season behind him. The guy is not THAT bad. In August, underdogs of +125 to +175 with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 31-18 (63%) over the past ten years. I give Cincy a shot here against a cold Atlanta team that is struggling to put up runs.