Arizona at Texas

Texas is a great hitter's park, which was evident in Game 1 when Arizona scored five runs. Unfortunately for them, they gave up six. The Diamondbacks turn to Merrill Kelly tonight. He has a 2.59 ERA at home, but 4.07 on the road. The Texas bullpen was 23rd in ERA (4.77) during the regular season and Arizona is 81-55 OVER the total against bullpens that blow 38% or more of its save opportunities. The Texas offense was third during the regular season in runs scored, slugging, and on-base percentage. Starter Jordan Montgomery had a 2.73 ERA on the road this season, but that jumped to 3.61 at home in this offensive park. The Rangers are on a 50-31 run OVER the total at home, including 40-26 OVER as a home favorite. Take Arizona/Texas OVER the total.