Arizona at Tampa Bay

Brandon Webb started off hot and has cooled. Despite two straight poor efforts against the Mets and Rangers, he's still got a 2.37 ERA and an 8-2 record. On the road he's 4-1. This is an important game for them as they don't want to drop to .500. Tampa Bay scores just 4.4 runs per game, even worse against right-handed starters. Their bullpen is awful at home (6.55 ERA). Home underdogs of +125 or more with a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse on the season that has been unusually hot (ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games) are just 19-65 (23%) since 1997. As an added bonus, home teams in games umpired by Angel Hernandez have an extremely low .500 record. Zona and Webb here.