Arizona at New York

After underperforming expectations for most of the season, the Mets are showing signs of improvement. Yes, they have dropped two straight, but prior to that they had put together their best run of the season by winning five in a row. They've averaged 5.7 runs per game over their last seven games while holding opponents to 2.3. Tonight, Oliver Perez takes the mound and he's 2-1 at home this season. He's facing a hot Max Scherzer and thanks to this matchup, the D-Backs are favored on the road here. But, a good starting pitching matchup does not guarantee a win. The fact remains that despite a very solid overall ERA of 3.61, Scherzer is just 6-6 on the season. In his road starts, he's put up a 2.70 ERA but he has a losing record! Why? His bullpen is average at best and he gets no run support. The Diamondbacks average only 4.1 runs per game on the road and 3.7 per game against LHP as they are facing today. Arizona has won back-to-back by a combined score of 7-2 but they aren't likely to sustain that kind of play. In fact they are 1-9 this year after holding opponents to two or fewer runs in back-to-back games. They are also just 17-22 this season as a small favorite of -100 to -150. I like the Mets at home in this one.