Arizona at Milwaukee

Arizona is ice cold right now having lost seven of their last nine. Milwaukee has won three in a row. Both pitchers are suspect. Yusmeiro Petit has only thrown 17 innings. Claudio Vargas has been pretty bad his last three starts. But, we trust Vargas more. He's got a 4.52 ERA (4.15 at home) and a 6-2 overall record (perfect 4-0 at home). The Brewers are 12-3 this season when he takes the mound. Thanks to good run support, he doesn't lose often. The Brew Crew averages 5.1 runs per game and they are 33-14 at home this season. Arizona has no run support. They average a paltry 3.9 runs per game on the road on .239 hitting. They are averaging only 3.4 per game their last seven games. The Brewers have power (1.4 HRs per game) and that spells trouble for the D-Backs. Arizona is 9-24 the past two seasons vs. teams that hit 1.25+ home runs per game. Milwaukee also has the bullpen advantage, in case Vargas' slump isn't quite over. At home, their pen has a 3.10 ERA and 83% save percentage. It doesn't get much better than that. Milwaukee absolutely thrives against poor hitting opponents. This season they are 17-2 at home vs. NL teams batting .255 or worse and 19-3 at home vs. NL teams with an OBP under .330! Lots of ways for Milwuakee to win this one and few for Arizona.