Arizona at Miami

Arizona got trounced in game one 14-5. We like them to come back and win as a dog tonight. They have still won 17 of their last 22 games and cling to the division lead over San Diego. We like Doug Davis who has a 3.27 road ERA (2.05 in his last three starts). Over the past two seasons, with him on the mound the D-Backs are 18-5 when facing NL teams that score 4.8+ per game. Meanwhile, Florida is 2-10 with Mitre starting agains poor offensive teams (scoring less than 4.3 runs per game). They are also 1-8 with him starting as a favorite of -100 to -150. The D-Backs are averaging 5.7 runs per game overall over their last seven. Florida hits lefties well but it doesn't translate very will into wins as they still own just a 16-20 mark vs. southpaws this season. Arizona to bounce back here.