Arizona at Chicago

The Cubs face elimination at home today, as they have fallen down 2-0 in this five-game series. The Cubs have not been home since September 23, and will need a big performance from Rich Hill to stay alive. The side here doesn't offer any value in our estimation, but we do see tremendous value on the total. Livan Hernandez has been a solid playoff pitcher throughout his career, and the scouting report says that for him it is all about command. If he doesn't have it, expect an early exit, if he does expect a gem. A look at some situations that display the value here. The Cubs have been a team that isn't winning with their bats they win with their arms, which is the same for Arizona. The Cubs have managed 4.5 runs a game at home against .500+ teams when they start a RHP against them. The D-Backs are scoring just 3.76-rpg in the same situation, but on the road. It leaves a starting point, in terms of reasonable expectation, that 8.26 runs are expected taking this average, a full 1.3 runs below the posted total. On the road, Arizona has played to a total of from 9 to 10.5 on 29 occasions this season and has played under 21-6-2, or 78% of the time. They have also played under to the tune of 23-9-2 against a team with a winning home record. Today they send Livan Hernandez to the mound, where he has been under 7-0-1 in his last eight road starts with a line of 9 to 10.5, and is 16-5-1 under in his last 22 starts on the road. The Cubs have played under 19-7-1 in their last 27 games against a RHP, and 30-13-1 under overall in their last 44 games. The biggest bat in the Cub lineup is Ramirez, who has hit .395 against LHP, and 109 points less against RHP. The D-Backs do not have a hitter on the roster with more than 34 road RBIs, and feature just 3 hitters .270+. We have teams averaging 8.26 runs a game, in all the similar features presented in this one with both teams in the top seven in pitching with bullpens in the top third of the league as well, and neither team above 18 in runs scored in MLB, with a pretty lofty NL playoff game total.  Finally home plate umpire for today's game is Greg Gibson. Gibson's last eight behind the plate in Cubs games resulted in 6-2 in favor of the under, while in his last six D-Back games the result was 4-1-1 under, so collectively his last 14 games involving these teams resulted in 10-3-1 to the under. These teams met three times in Chicago to a combined 16 runs in a three-game series with no game totaling over eight. The teams combined to hit .195 in the series. We also have a playoff system that has posted a 65% winning rate for specific situation unders, and this game applies to that system. We will look for this to be a low scoring game and ride the UNDER.