From spring training through the 2024 World Series, baseball has often been called "The Thinking Man's game." Less about the brute force seen in boxing or football. More about strategic thinking to gain advantages. Outfielders shift depending on who's batting, managers utilize lefty/righty stats, and pitchers use their heads as much as their arms when trying to get batters out. Even fans try to think about what strategy should come next, such as a hit-and-run, which relievers to bring in, or does a base stealer have a big enough lead?
Wagering on baseball also requires enormous preparation and thought. It's not easy to single out the best bet on the betting board. Predicting top MLB picks is about deducing on-the-diamond edges versus the posted MLB odds and lines. Common baseball stats that casual fans digest are batting averages, RBI, homers, and pitching ERA. But digging deeper can help better understand betting numbers and potential outcomes. Finding the path to baseball best bets is no accident. Let's take a closer look at some of the stats and angles that professional and the best baseball handicappers utilize and why.
What On Earth Is 'OBP'?
Type in "OBP" and you'll get results anywhere from the "Oregon Public Broadcasting Network" to the "Office for Bombing Prevention" at the Department of Homeland Security. Valuable organizations that inform and protect the public, but they won't help a lick in predicting tonight's Giants/Dodgers game or provide the latest betting news, team news on which MLB team will win, or insights into the MLB run line. OBP in baseball is "On-Base Percentage." This is calculated by combining hits, walks, and hit-by-pitches divided by the sum of at-bats, walks, hit-by-pitches, and sacrifice flies. Fortunately, you don't have to do all the calculations. OBP results are common in newspapers and sports betting sites. Serious online sports betting bettors analyze statistics while trying to determine if there are any edges in baseball betting odds. For instance, players with above-average on-base percentages numbers are tough outs for pitchers. They are capable of fouling off pitches to stay alive, good at collecting base hits, and very good at drawing walks. That might seem insignificant to casual sports fans. But for bettors intent on top betting picks and baseball predictions while turning a profit, it is valuable betting information - when utilized properly.
Aggressive hitters will have an OBP closer to their batting average because they walk fewer times. But walks are valuable. Decades ago, baseball manager Jimmie Dykes, a keen strategist, remarked, "You can't steal first base." Getting on base via a walk, a hit, or a hit-by-pitch helps a team in many ways. You can't score without getting on base expect via a home run. A solo home run is worth just one run, but a three-run homer can change the fortunes of a game quickly. In addition to betting on who will win the game, bettors can wager on the total number of runs scored by both teams, such as 8, 9, or 10. Teams that clog the bases with a high frequency of good on-base percentage batters provide a valuable edge to going OVER the total. Teams that swing at a lot of pitches and have low on-base percentages can struggle over a 162 game of the MLB season to score. Hitting a pair of solo homers as opposed to a pair of three-run bombs makes a big difference to a bettor who has wagered UNDER 8 total runs scored.
High on-base batters also force the opposing pitcher to throw more times in an inning. That adds up quickly, especially in an age where pitch counts are monitored carefully by managers. Astute bettors pay attention because betting lines are based primarily on the starting pitchers. But many starters go 5-to-6 innings, which means the bullpen is likely to decide the game. It's not a sound wagering investment strategy to put all your chips on the starting pitcher and then see him leave with one out in the fifth inning - especially if their bullpen is below average or worse.
Betting Bullpens
Teams that make the postseason and advance to the World Series often have good to great relief pitching. Even World Series odds are based on the starting pitchers. But with starters going half to two-thirds of the game, the all-important seventh, eighth, and ninth innings are put into the hands of relievers who chalk up far fewer innings. Serious bettors should know bullpen strengths and weaknesses from April through October to make the best bets today using betting tips and betting advice from their favorite sportsbook or sportsbooks. One of the most important attributes of baseball managing is knowing when a starter is nearing the end of their effectiveness. Pitching coaches track how many throws a starter has made, but it's the manager who has to make the betting decision when the starter has had enough and who to bring in next.
Middle relievers are guys who enter in the sixth or seventh innings and throw 10-to-30 pitches. Their job is to get a few batters out, keep his team in the game, and then head for the showers. It can be easy to overlook a pitcher who throws just 20-to-30 pitches two or three times a week. But they can be just as important to the outcome as the guy throwing 90 pitches through the first five innings.
Closers generally come in at the end to try and get the final three outs. But just because a pitcher is called "closer" doesn't mean he's airtight at closing. Some closers are the best short relievers the team has available, but they can still have below-average ERAs, allow too many walks, and blow too many games. Bettors who want to win should be aware of which relievers are likely to be available each day. The opening MLB odds on the games today are based on the starting pitcher, but the best MLB picks are singled out by assessing how the game will play out, including the strength (or ineffectiveness) of the relief staff.
Lefty/Righty Dynamics
Lefty/righty matchups are an important part of managing and handicapping. Some teams stack their lineup with lefty hitters against strong right-handed starters. This is done on purpose if the righty starter happens to be terrific against righty batters but more vulnerable versus lefties. It's no accident. An effective slider, for instance, thrown by a right-handed starter breaks down and away from righty batters. The right-handed batter has to adjust his stance at the last second lunging toward a pitch that is breaking down and away from the plate. Making contact would more likely be near the top of the ball driving it downward - a ground ball kept in the infield. And no contact would mean a strikeout.
A lefty batter, by contrast, would have less of an adjustment with the slider breaking in on them. They could pull it, foul or fair, or back away. No contact would increase the chances of a ball or a walk. With a sinkerball pitcher, the baseball breaks down at the last second. It often matters less whether the batter or pitcher is lefty or righty. It's all subtle, of course, but the stats show that what a pitcher throws can be more effective against lefty or righty batters. Managers know all of this and use it. Expert MLB handicappers know all this, as well, and utilize lefty/righty dynamics when searching for winning and free MLB picks and MLB predictions.
Baseball Defense
It's always been a challenge to properly assess defensive range in baseball. Speedy outfielders versus slow outfielders are the easiest to identify. It's more of a valuable handicapping tool or betting tool for MLB picks depending upon the size of the outfield. Fenway Park, for instance, has less room, so slow outfielders are at less of a disadvantage there. But if a team goes from playing at Fenway to Dodger Stadium, that's a huge difference in outfield size. An outfielder with limited speed would be more of a liability in Los Angeles. Team errors are the easiest way to calculate defense. A team that makes a lot of errors is going to give up more runs. You might be hesitant to wager on them in the role of favorite. It might be wiser to anticipate a higher-scoring MLB game, making the MLB total a more attractive best bet.
Situational MLB Handicapping
Emotion is often overrated in sports. A baseball team that was humiliated 14-1 may want to exact revenge the next day, but do they have the talent to accomplish it? It's not a given that they'll play better, especially if their starter takes the mound with a 5.75 ERA. However, there are a lot of situations that crop up that sports betting bettors give serious weight to when assessing MLB expert picks. There are unique games such as a sellout crowd showing up for the retirement of a star player's jersey or to honor past championship teams. That can add some extra incentive for the home team to focus with great effort.
Road travel is a situation that can be measured. It can explain the reasons behind a team playing below its capabilities offering go-against wagering value. A first-place team on a 10-game road trip can easily drop a few games that they've favored. Road travel is difficult in all sports. Bus rides, plane rides, staying in unfamiliar hotels, players crossing time zones disrupt normal sleeping patterns. All of these things can chip away at the best-conditioned athletes. When the Texas Rangers won the World Series, they had a nine-game road trip in August and went 3-6. They lost three times as favorites of -160, -135, and -165. Sports bettors search for situations that come into play for today's MLB best bets, which can be found on various picks pages that cover baseball betting markets including public betting trends and insights on the MLB playoffs. This can create MLB consensus picks where multiple professional handicappers back one team while identifying similar angles. It's not guesswork. There are clear reasons behind these best MLB bets that favor one team.
Extra inning games are also a significant part of situational baseball handicapping. Not the extra inning game - it's the day after that stands out. Picture a team playing a 13-inning game on Tuesday night at home and then flying to Milwaukee to play the next night. Several factors will be working against them: the road travel, the emotional game the night before, likely the use of some of their best relievers in the extra inning frames who won't be available. It doesn't mean they'll be flat. But it does mean several things that make it more challenging for them. Serious winning handicappers assess these factors when searching for go-against or play-on MLB picks. One MLB season, the Rockies and Padres played a 22-inning marathon. The next night, San Diego flew to Arizona...and lost 9-0, falling behind 6-0 in the first inning! Do you think the 22-inning game had a little something to do with the flat performance the next night?
Take Me Out to the Crowd
Stadium dimensions are another area to consider. Some ballparks are called "hitter's palaces" or "home run parks" with small dimensions. That's great for hitters, but tough on pitchers. Other outfields are spacious with more lower-scoring contests. Still, other parks are ideal for left-handed sluggers. Refer to a list of park sizes while handicapping every game of the MLB - because the guys who set the best odds do!
It's Sunday - Get Me Out of the Ballpark!
Would the day of the week make any difference to how professionals perform on the diamond? It depends on outside influences. After all, major league baseball players, managers, and even umpires are human. A player with issues at home might not be 100% focused. Sunday is often referred to as "get-away day" in baseball. Schedules will have a team playing a three-game series from Friday through Sunday. Players, managers, and umpires have additional things on their minds on Sunday - getting to the hotel after the game, heading to the airport, and flying to another city. Do umpires call more strikes than balls on Sunday? It's arguable and they'd never admit it. But long games and extra-inning contests on a Sunday have the potential to wreak havoc on personal schedules, causing delays and forcing flights to be changed. Some Vegas handicappers incorporate this into their baseball betting strategies believing that Sunday baseball games are the best given day of the week to look at UNDER the total.
Buy Me Some Peanuts, Crackerjacks, and Best MLB Picks and Predictions Today
Baseball picks on betting sites should be assembled based on sound reasoning, not guesswork. Attention is paid by serious handicappers to details and matchups large and small. Some areas are subtle, such as the park size, errors, steals, or defense. Other factors carry far more weight, such as bullpen strength, lefty/righty dynamics, and situational handicapping. Betting baseball is great because there are games almost every day over seven months. But if you want to win betting baseball, it takes time, effort, and careful analysis to unearth the best MLB picks.
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