Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers

Chicago went UNDER for the fifth game in a row losing 1-0 to the Brewers on Tuesday after winning 3-1 the night before. The Cubs have won three of Justin Steele's past four starts and he has a 3.07 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP this season. Steele has faced Milwaukee twice this year and allowed three runs in 13 innings. The Brewers are 0-6 their past six games after allowing two or fewer runs their previous game and they have lost five of six against a team that scored two or fewer. The Cubs have stayed UNDER eight straight home games and they are 56-44 UNDER in 2024. The wind will be blowing in from center at 10 mph. Chicago has won four of five in Game 3 of a series. Take the Cubs and the UNDER.

I think this is a good opportunity for a low scoring game. The starters combined ERA is an average indicator of just seven runs scoring here. The Cubs have been getting excellent starting pitching, as well as from the bullpen. The Cubs are 10-4 to the UNDER in their last 14 games as their pitching staff has allowed just 40 total runs. That is fewer than three runs per game. When these teams get together the under is 156-177-18 (0.2, 53.2%). Those numbers rise further when the game is played in Chicago, where it is 54.3% to the UNDER. Make the play UNDER the total.

Last place Chicago is 16-27 on the road with a bullpen that is 25th in the majors with a 4.53 ERA. They're on a 4-8 run and play their sixth straight road game. The Cubs are also on a 9-18 run in divisional play. Justin Steele has a 2.50 ERA on the road, though the team is 2-9 in his 11 starts. Chicago is 23-8 UNDER the total on the road against NL starters with an ERA of 3.20 or better. First-place Milwaukee is 26-12 at home with a relief staff that is fourth with a 3.24 ERA. They've won five in a row, part of a 9-4 run, and play their fifth consecutive home contest. Batters are hitting just .219 off Tobias Myers (3.12 ERA) and he's backed by an offense that is seventh in runs scored and fourth in on-base percentage. The Brewers are 58-39 UNDER the total against NL starters with a WHIP of 1.250 or better, plus 42-17 as home chalk of -150 or less. Play Milwaukee + UNDER the total as a Max Play.  

Last place Chicago is 13-25 on the road with a bullpen that is 25th in the majors with a 4.53 ERA. They're are on a 4-7 run and play their fifth straight road game. The Cubs are 14-23 after a victory and on a 9-17 run in divisional play. First-place Milwaukee is 25-12 at home with a relief staff that is fourth with a 3.24 ERA. They've won four in a row, part of an 8-4 run, and play their fourth consecutive home contest. Colin Rea (3.62 ERA) sports a 2.76 ERA at home while the offense is third in runs scored and on-base percentage. And the Brewers are 41-17 as home chalk of -150 or less. Play Milwaukee.