Baltimore Orioles vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Baltimore's pitching is seventh in ERA (3.07) and fifth in the pen (1.95), while the offense is ninth in runs scored. Dean Kremer started a 6-4 victory over Kansas City and last season was 13-5 holding batters to a .254 average. His teams are 15-3 when he faces winning teams. The Orioles are 25-7 as a road favorite. Pittsburgh starter Marco Gonzales faced Washington in the opener but runs into a far more potent offense here. Last year, Gonzalez had a 5.22 ERA with Seattle. With the Orioles 54-39 against winning teams, back the visitors. Play Baltimore.  

Baltimore's pitching is 12th in ERA (3.33) and 10th in the pen (2.70), while the offense is seventh in runs. Grayson Rodriguez (1.50 ERA) was terrific in his first start (one run allowed) in beating the Angels, 13-4. The Orioles are 22-9 after batting .200 or worse over a three-game stretch, plus 20-6 as a road favorite. Pittsburgh comes home from playing seven straight on the road. The pitching staff is 14th in team ERA and 22-year-old Jared Jones (4.76 ERA) gets the nod again making only his second MLB appearance. Play Baltimore. 

Pittsburgh has been in a team slump lately, but the Pirates have Mitch Keller going today and he has been a bright spot through the rough going and he comes off a complete-game 2-0 win over Colorado on Monday when he allowed only four hits and one walk with eight strikeouts. Keller is 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA overall with a .214 opponent batting average and four homers allowed in 49 2/3 innings. Pittsburgh's bullpen has been decent with 13 saves and a 1.32 WHIP in 2023. Kyle Gibson has a 4.40 ERA for Baltimore and opposing hitters are batting .279 against him. Look for Pittsburgh to salvage the final game of the series and play the Pirates.

Pittsburgh has a winning road mark. They came close yesterday with a 2-1 lead in the bottom of the seventh before a Baltimore rally. The Pirates' offense is 13th in the majors in runs scored, 11th in on-base percentage, and 14th in slugging while leading the league in steals. Roansy Contreras has a 3.71 ERA on the road where Pittsburgh has won two of his three away starts. Baltimore is just 3-3 over the last six contests. It's been a grueling last two weeks, too, with a 10-game road trip along with a homestand against division rival Tampa Bay, the best team in the league. All of which makes this an excellent situational spot for the very live underdog. Play Pittsburgh.