Bet this race at Diamond SportsTop pick: #13 (RAIN DANCE) (8-1) - This longshot scratches in from the also-eligible list and is switching from grass to dirt while dropping into a claimer for the first time. A $200K daughter of 'The Factor,' she has a speed/stalking style and has been working very fast on the main track at Keeneland for her first since March 12.
2nd pick: #8 (Strong Odor) (6-1) - Home-bred filly by 'Strong Mandate,' she raced both wide and evenly when debuting on the all-weather surface at Turfway Park March 14. Trainer Mike Maker, 20% second time out, drops her into a claimer (31%), and I think she'll be competitive at a square price.
3rd pick: #3 (Spanish Peaks) (7-2) - One of two making their debuts, she's been in steady training at Keeneland since late March. A $50K filly by 'Shackleford,' this 3yo drilled a bullet five furlongs from the gate in 00:59.80 in April, and trainer Brad Cox, 17% first out, has Joel Rosario aboard.
4th pick: #10 (Mariposa d'Oro) (4-1) - On the sidelines since Dec. 22, she's been in steady training since early March and is dropping to a new low in her third trip to the post. Competitive in her lone sprint, she has early speed, draws well, and must be left in the mix.
5th pick: #5 (Complete Surprise) (15-1) - She ships from Tampa Bay Downs where she was beaten by two lengths going two-turns on the grass May 3. It was her first in five months, and she's switching back to the dirt, drops in class, and she's capable of getting a share at a big price.