img HORSE

Churchill Downs Race #12 (2024 Kentucky Derby)

May 4, 2024
img6:55 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Top pick: #2 (Sierra Leone) (11-4) - Despite numerous obstacles, this Chad Brown 3-year old stepped into a Grade 1 race for the first time four weeks ago and won the Blue Grass Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths. Sierra Leone rallied from ninth in the 10-horse race to victory, besting two other Kentucky Derby rivals Just a Touch and Dornoch. He showed impressive closing stuff passing three horses in the final furlong of the 1 1/8-mile race.

2nd pick: #1 (Dornoch) (33-1) - Dornoch has ran in four straight races at over a mile and won three while finishing fourth once. He posted a 98-Beyer speed figure in winning the Remsen Stakes. He'll get to utilize that speed early after drawing the No. 1 pole position. Dornoch has also shown stamina, so the speed/stamina/pole position combo should have this horse in the running all the way.

3rd pick: #17 (Fierceness) (3-1) - Speedy Fierceness impressed winning the Grade 1 Florida Derby and the 2023 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. With those dazzling performances, it's difficult to believe Fierceness has never won back-to-back races. Talented but inconsistent, finishing seventh in the Champagne Stakes and third two races ago in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes. Fierceness was a 3-to-5 favorite but tired late in the Holy Bull at 1 1/16 miles. This will be a longer race in a crowded field.

4th pick: #18 (Stronghold) (18-1) - This 3-year old colt won the Santa Anita Derby four weeks ago, finishing first or second in six races. Stronghold also won at Churchill Downs in October, finishing ahead of fellow Kentucky Derby starters Resilience and Track Phantom. This tactical horse has exhibited versatility depending on pace scenarios along with extreme competitiveness.

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