img HORSE

CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #11 (THE KENTUCKY OAKS (G1))

May 6, 2016
img5:50 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Bet this race at Diamond SportsTop pick: #12 (CATHRYN SOPHIA) (9-2) - She tasted defeat for the first time when beaten a 1/2 length in the Ashland Stakes (G1) at Keeneland April 9. Filly had won her initial four starts all in easy fashion going around one-turn. Her loss was her first attempt at a two-turn distance and she should rebound in this wide open edition of the Kentucky Oaks (G1).

2nd pick: #11 (Rachel's Valentina) (7-2) - The first foal from two time champ 'Rachel Alexandra' Stonestreet home-bred won her first pair before finishing second to 2-year-old Eclipse award winner 'Songbird' in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) Oct 31 at Keeneland. She missed by a 'neck' in her seasonal debut in Keeneland's Ashland Stakes (G1) April 9, but was a 'neck' in front of 'Cathryn Sophia.' Nice effort and she's a threat in her second back from almost a 5.5 month layoff.

3rd pick: #1 (Terra Promessa) (10-1) - She's one of three fillies entered by trainer Steve Asmussen and they all race as separate betting interests. This daughter missed by a 1/21 length when debuting last Oct at Keeneland, but has won all four starts since then. Speed/stalker has the rail and is a factor from close range after saving ground from her inside post.

4th pick: #14 (Taxable) (20-1) - Another of the Asmussen fillies, she's very lightly-raced. Daughter of 'Tapit' won her first pair and was only a 'neck' behind stablemate 'Terra Promessa' at Oaklawn Park in the G3 Fantasy Stakes April 9. Improving an a threat at a big price if able to avoid a wide trip from this marooned post.

5th pick: #3 (Lewis Bay) (8-1) - From the always dangerous barn of Chad Brown, she ships from New York where she won the Gazelle Stakes (G2) at this distance on a muddy track at Aqueduct April 9. Competitive in all five appearances, she's a threat from off the pace.

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