img HORSE

CHURCHILL DOWNS Race #11 (THE 136TH KENTUCKY DERBY (G1))

May 1, 2010
img6:25 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Top pick: #1 (LOOKIN AT LUCKY) - Last year's two-year-old champ was very impressive in winning his seasonal debut at Oaklawn Park in the "Rebel" S.(G2) on March 13 which was also the first start of his career on a conventional dirt course and first with the addition of blinkers. The latter is a bit of an unusual move on a runner that's already proved successful without them but Mr. Bob Baffert knows a "thing or two" about winning big races. $475,000 son of "Smart Strike" had a lot of trouble last out in the "Santa Anita Derby" (G1) as he was forced to "steady hard" about mid-way through the far turn just when it looked like he was about to make a move (and in all probability a winning one). He's worked three times in the last two weeks with the last pair being "bullets" and more importantly they were on "off" surfaces which is a distinct possibility with the local forecast predicting heay rains on the night before the big race. Colt has won from the inside post twice before and believe he'll do it again. The top choice in a very contentious "Derby".

2nd pick: #17 (Dublin) - He's one of three runners entered that have yet to taste victory in 2010. Son of "Afleet Alex" has raced three times this season and has been beaten a total of just over four lengths while finishing second in the "Southwest S." (G3) at Oaklawn on Feb. 20 then finishing close-up thirds in both the "Rebel S." (G2) and the "Arkansas Derby" (G1) also at Oaklawn. Love his "bullet" drill here April 19 and he had his final drill in the "mud" just six days ago. Colt can be placed just about anywhere and believe he's set up nicely by trainer Wayne Lukas to run his best yet.

3rd pick: #2 (Ice Box) - "Smallish" colt is still improving and won the "Florida Derby" (G1) last out on March 20. Son of "Pulpit" rallied from far back that day to get up in the last two strides, to win by a "nose." He's also capable of racing much closer to the pace and his pair of drills on this surface have been done in impresive style. Has a big shot at the win in the last two furlongs.

4th pick: #4 (Super Saver) - One of four entered from the Pletcher barn and he's another who hasn't won yet this season. Colt by "Maria's Mon" finished a very close third at Tampa Bay Downs in his seasonal debut March 13 in the Tampa Derby (G3) then just missed (a neck) in the Arkansas Derby (G1) to today's rival "Line David". Flexible style is a plus and he worked nicely in the local slop on April 24. Has a shot at a nice price.

5th pick: #19 (Homeboykris) - Trainer (Richard Dutrow Jr.) won here two years ago with "Big Brown" and doubt if he'd be here if he didn't think the field's lone gelding didn't belong. Training superbly for his first race since a second-place finish to his uncoupled barn-mate "Radiohead" in a mile race at Gulfstream Park Feb. 27, he must be left in the exotics mix.

TAKE THE GUESSWORK OUT OF SPORTS BETTING

Get my free Horse picks and predictions.

Join 409,393 Subscribers!