Wisconsin at Tennessee

This is a matchup of two teams that have gotten here by offense - both teams can move the ball. Tennessee comes in at 9-4, which sounds fairly impressive considering the rigors of the SEC. But this team is just six points away from not being in a bowl game at all! They needed OT to win against Kentucky and South Carolina, and had a come-from-behind one-point win over Vanderbilt. If those three games went against them they would be 6-7. When they lose, they lose big! Their four losses were by a combined margin of 84 points, so they have certainly thrown up some stinkers. Wisconsin comes in with a 9-3 mark. They will get P.J. Hill back for this game and his 1000+ yards and his five per carry will aid an already potent offense. Zach Brown has also rushed for about five yards per carry in his absence, so they now have two quality RBs to utilize. Wisconsin had a horrible start. They opened by covering their game against Washington State, but then proceeded to go until October 20 before covering another. They finished just 4-7 ATS. This is a team improving, and with so much time to heal injuries and get better, they will be a tough team for Tennessee to beat. Teams that had a losing ATS mark during the season in a major bowl (basically New Year's Day and after) are 18-8 ATS over teams with winning ATS records. The total here is hovering close to 60 points and Tennessee is 10-33 ATS when they allow 28 or more points including 1-3 this year, while Wisconsin is 61-21 ATS when they score 28 or more including 4-2 this year. This is the kind of game that gives the edge to Wisconsin, so we will play the dog here.