Wisconsin at Michigan State

This one comes down to the prolific offense of Wisconsin against the top-rated defense of the Spartans. So who do you believe in? The Badgers have played a soft schedule thus far, and the offensive numbers remain gaudy. But looking at the three toughest defenses they faced in their last 12 games (remember that they racked-up just 83 and 70 a year ago), they have shown signs of being ordinary. They faced Michigan State a year ago, Iowa's tough defense last year, and TCU’s big defense in their Bowl game. In those three games, they managed 342 yards per game and 24.7 points per game. That's good but not great. The other games show them at 485 yards per game and 48.9 ppg, so the offense is pared in half by a big defense. Is Michigan State a defense that is legit? Well, they have held every single opponent they have faced this year to season-low yards, including Notre Dame who is generating 500 per game like clockwork (they held the Irish to just 275). This is a lot of points to give against a big defense that has proved that they can slow down any offense. Wisconsin still has some proving to do against great competition. Take the Spartans and the points here.