Western Michigan at Iowa

Iowa has won eight or more games for the past eight years. This is a team that always depends on defense to stay competitive and win ugly games, but here is the problem that creates: Iowa has scored more than 31 points just four times in the last two seasons (27 games). They have faced Utah St., and Iowa St. this year with a high score of 24 points. Iowa has not been favored by 4+ TDs in a game since 2011, and there is a reason for that. Western Michigan is overmatched here but 28+ points is an overlay, and Iowa can't be trusted to cover. Make the play on Western Michigan.