West Virginia at Oklahoma State

We faded West Virginia last week and our bet came through as the Mountaineers lost outright to TCU. I am again going against WVU for many of the same reasons. Yes, this team started off 5-0 and had a front-runner for the Heisman Trophy. But that was a long time ago! They have now lost three straight games in ugly fashion. Texas Tech exposed them 49-14. Then Kansas State crushed them 55-14. And, last week, as a 6 underdog, TCU bear WVU, scoring 39 points. The verdict is out on this defense and it is not good. Over the past five games, West Virginia has given up 50.2 points per game. Ouch. Against an overmatched Savannah State defense in week one, the Cowboys scored 84 points. In week three, OSU put up 65 gainst Louisiana Lafayette. But those are not very good defenses you say? Correct. West Virginia's is closer to those defenses than you might think and Oklahoma State is going to score a lot of points here. The question is, how much can WVU score? I don't think it will be enough. Under Mike Gundy, the Cowboys are 40-17 ATS as a favorite including 16-3 ATS as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 10 points). They are also 28-16 ATS in expected high-scoring games (total set at 63 or more). Take OSU to roll here.