Washington vs. Michigan

Washington has a great offense but defense wins a lot of championships. The Huskies are 88th in the country defensively in yards given up (404.1 per game), 73rd on third down (39.90%), and 49th in points allowed (24.1 per game). They've beaten six Top 20 teams, though many were close and they allowed 30.8 points per game versus those Top 20 teams. Washington beat Oregon by three, Utah by seven, Oregon State by two, Oregon by three, and Texas by six. Washington is 8-19 ATS away from home against defenses that allow 4.5 or fewer yards per play. Michigan has played four Top 16 teams, beating No. 15 Penn State (24-15), No. 16 Iowa (26-0), No. 2 Ohio State (30-24), and No. 4 Alabama (27-20). The defense is No. 1 in the country in yards allowed, 10th on third down (30.22%), and tops in points allowed (10.2 per game). Michigan is on a 27-14 spread run, including 15-5 ATS away from home after a victory. Play Michigan.