Western Kentucky at Florida International

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers decided that Div-1 football is where they needed to be, but have paid the price for the upgrade to the tune of 1-31 against Div-1 teams and counting. This is their best chance at a win thus far this season. Last week at South Florida they showed the strides they have made. They were 27.5 point underdogs vs. S. Florida last week and lost by just 12 points. The Hilltoppers outgained a BCS conference team on the road, and out first-downed them 18-16 as well, so this team is progressing. How much? Their first 10 games against BCS teams saw them losing by an average of 35 points per game and losing the yardage battly by 281 yards per game. They are much improved since then. The Golden Panthers are out of the gate at 0-4 themselves and they have gone just 3-13 straight-up in their last 16 games. This is a team that gave up 40 points six times a year ago and already twice this year, so the Hilltoppers will have room to roam on offense. While the 1-31 sounds ugly for Western Kentucky, they are closing in, having gone 4-0 ATS in their last fouor conference games. I like their chances at keeping this one close enough for the ATS win.