Western Kentucky at Alabama

Nick Saban has built a powerhouse at Alabama, winning three of the last five National Championships. They come into 2016 as the consensus favorite to do it again. Many will point to the fact that Saban had to replace his QB, and point to that as a weakness, but Saban has had to do so for the three previous seasons as well. Don't forget that six of the last seven NCAA Champions had a QB that was starting for the first time. Freshman Blake Barnett got the start, and he struggled to move the offense, and the Tide found themselves down 3-0 after one quarter vs. USC, appearing to be in trouble offensively. Enter QB Jalen Hurts, and things immediately changed. The Tide went on to outscore a very good USC team 52-0 for an impressive, dominating easy win. The defense, which may be Saban's best ever (which is saying a lot), held USC to fewer than 200 yards, and just three yards per play. The Tide has hosted three C-USA opponents since the start of the 2014 season, and have outscored them 130-22. Western Kentucky is off a 12 win season, the best mark by far in program history. It will be mighty hard to stay on top, as gone is a QB who accounted for 10,000 yards and 100 TDs, all in the last 2 seasons. Unlike Alabama, this is not a program that just reloads. The problem is the offense is not going to be able to score at the same rate vs. better teams. The defense, one of the worst in 2014, allowing 40 points per game, improved to 25.9 ppg last season, is going to take a step back. The offense is not going to hold the ball as much, and seven starters are gone, so they may be closer to the 40 ppg they allowed in 2014, than the 25.9 ppg allowed last year. A team like Alabama is going to limit them offensively, and as we saw vs. a strong USC squad, the Tide put up 52 in three quarters. This game fits a situation that sees home favorites off a win of 35 points or more, and facing a team that played a high scoring game of 60 points or more, have gone 199-123-8 ATS, or 61.2%. lay the bundle and play on Alabama.