Virginia vs. Florida

ORANGE BOWL - Florida won't have star cornerback C.J. Henderson for this Bowl, who is sitting out after declaring for the draft. The Gators have failed to cover five of six at neutral sites, and college football favorites of 10.5 to 21 points that have won eight or more of their last 10 games are 31-64 ATS against teams with a winning percentage between 60 to 80%. Florida's strength is on defense, eighth in the nation in points surrendered (14.4 pg), #10 in total yards allowed. Florida is 18-6 UNDER the total against the ACC. Virginia is a big underdog but has a terrific offense (32.4 ppg) behind dual-threat senior QB Bryce Perkins (18 TDs, 11 INTs, 3,215 passing yards; 745 rushing yards). He threw for 266 yards against Clemson, the most allowed by the Tigers in 2019. All-ACC selection WR Joe Reed (627 yards) missed the Clemson game, but will play against the Gators. Virginia is 29-14 UNDER the total after getting 280+ yards passing in their previous game, so back the dog in a defensive duel. Play both Virginia and the UNDER.