Virginia at Pittsburgh

The Virginia program is already showing signs of advancement under Bronco Mendenhall. The Cavaliers are 5-2, and played a horrible game on both sides of the ball last week in a surprising 41-10 loss to Boston College. It was an outlier game, for a team that had held five of their previous six opponents to 23 points or fewer, and it certainly looks to be over-reflected in the total. Pitt looks for their 10th straight season with six wins or more, but at 3-5 are going to be hard pressed to achieve it. Many remember last year's team that averaged 41 points per game, but allowed 35. Things have changed, as the Pitt offense is down from 41 to a woeful 23, but at the same time the defense has shaved 6 ppg off of last year's average. The change seems to get better game by game, as the Panthers allowed 37 ppg in their first four, but just 22.7 ppg in their last four. I see some hidden value, and will make the play on the UNDER.