Virginia at NC State

It has been a tough road for the Virginia Cavaliers over the last five years, as last year's squad has been the only team that has made it to a Bowl game. They are one loss away from not making one this year. With six straight in the loss column, they aren't looking much like a Bowl team anyway. By contrast, the Wolf Pack comes in needing one more win to become Bowl eligible. They own a signature win over Florida State, so they certainly can play at a high level when called upon. NC State has struggled vs. good passing teams, but in five games otherwise, they have not allowed any team over 18 points. They are likely going to achieve those defensive numbers here vs. a Virginia squad that has not topped the 20-point mark in six games vs. BCS conference competition. The Cavaliers have been one of the worst cover teams in CFB at 1-9-1 ATS over their last 11, including 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine on grass. The Wolfpack have been sensational at picking up the pieces after a loss where they are now 19-5-2 ATS in their last 26 when following a setback. Virginia is 0-15 ATS the past three years when allowing 28+ points and NC State is all but guaranteed to score in that range here (they average 33 per game at home while Virginia gives up 42 per game on the road). Take NC State minus the points.