Vanderbilt at Kentucky

Vanderbilt is 3-2 ATS and has gotten the money its last two games with a 31-30 overtime win at Western Kentucky and a 13-6 loss as a 10-point underdog against Florida. Vandy outgained the Gators 265-236 and rushed for 147 yards on four yards per carry while holding Florida to just 2.6 yards per rush. Ralph Webb of the Commodores led all rushers with 110 yards on 24 carries. Vandy has the defensive edge in this matchup, allowing 409.2 yards per game compared to 474.8 for the Wildcats. The Commodores have given up 23.6 points per contest and Kentucky has allowed 35. The Wildcats started their season by giving up 40-plus points in each of their first three games before beating South Carolina and then getting crushed at Alabama last week. The Crimson Tide outyarded Kentucky 488-161 and Stephen Johnson was 13-of-22 for only 89 yards and no touchdowns. Vanderbilt has covered the last five meetings, including 21-17 last season as a three-point dog and the Commodores have covered the number in 15 of their last 22 road games.  Kentucky is 3-10 ATS its last 13 games and 1-6 ATS after a loss. The Wildcats lost their last six games against FBS teams in 2015 and even with 15 returning starters, there doesn't appear to be much improvement this season. The Commodores have the defense to keep this one close, so take the points on Vanderbilt.