Vanderbilt at Georgia

I don't think many would have expected these teams to come into this game with identical 5-1 records, but here they are. Georgia was supposed to run the table and make a Championship appearance. Instead they fell flat at home losing to Alabama. Vandy was supposed to be rebuilding, but rebuilding what? They have never been a factor in the SEC but suddenly halfway through the season, they are! Something is definitely off with this Georgia team. They barely get past Tennessee (who has been awful). They found themselves down 31-0 at home to Alabama, and trailed at the half to South Carolina before ekeing out a 14-7 win. They really should have lost that game as they were outgained and had a +2 trunover margin, but still struggled to win. Suddenly there is no margin for error with a team that seemed to have a wide margin over everyone before the season started. So here comes Vandy. Already notching wins vs. S. Carolina and Auburn. No one is scoring on them. They have still been disrespected, as they have now been a dog four times, and won each one of them outright! Something is off with Georgia, and with LSU up next for the Bulldogs, they could be looking past the Commodores. If they get sleepy here, watch out. Georgia is on a 5-11 straight-up run at home vs. teams at .750 or better. I think there's great value on Vanderbilt straight-up here. The line gives them a 20% chance of winning but I think it's likely double that.