Utah State vs. Ohio

Utah State was an unlikely Bowl candidate at mid-season when they stood at 2-5. They surged forward to run the table, taking their last five games. That sounds great, but those last five games were against teams that would combine for a 24-38 record on the season. Their schedule was very weak this season, especially the teams they beat. The Aggies defense was highly suspect, especially considering their weak schedule, as they finished allowing 28.2 points per game - No. 74 in the nation. Ohio won their last five regular season games as well, before losing to Northern Illinois by 3 points in the MAC Championship game. The Bobcats are an explosive offense, topping the 30-point mark in seven games while allowing opponents to do the same in just three. Utah State shares that same explosiveness on offense, as they too reached the 30-point mark seven times. But, the Aggies are so much more vulnerable on defense as six opponents topped the 30-point mark on them this season. The Aggies have taken the donut in their last five as a favorite going 0-5 ATS, and have played OVER to a 5-1 mark in a game following a big offensive effort that produced 450 yards or more. The Bobcats strike gold as a dog with a 9-3 mark in their last 12 and have been a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in their last seven non-conference games. They have also gone 10-1 to the OVER in their last 11 as a dog of +3 points or less. Under Frank Solich, Ohio is 15-6 to the OVER in expected close games (line of -3 to +3). Take Ohio and play the OVER in this one.