USC at Arizona State

With Oregon's loss to Arizona, Arizona State holds their fate in their own hands. They lead the Pac 10 with jus tone loss. If they can win their final two games, both at home, they secure their BCS spot. So, they are sufficiently motivated to win this game on Thanksgiving. The Sun Devils are undefeated at home and 5-1 ATS. At home they are winning by an average score of 38.5 to 17. They haven't fared well against USC in the win-loss column but they have competed, having covered the last two games ATS vs. much superior Trojans teams. Last season they lost by just a touchdown in Southern California as a 19 point underdog. ASU has had two weeks to prepare for this all-important game and they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games coming off a bye. USC has won two in a row after falling to Oregon. But, the Trojans are 0-6 ATS this year and last following two straight wins. Arizona State is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 at home off a road win. Dennis Erickson, despite what you think of him, is very tough in close games. Teams he has coached are 13-4 ATS when the line is -3 to +3. He's also 31-14 ATS in all home games including 21-10 ATS vs. conference foes. We like Arizona State to win this one or keep it very close.